PACKERS (-13) over Bills
Oh Ryan Grant. What is it with my early round draft picks and injuries? Those of you who are part of our fantasy football clusterfuck will remember that I drafted Tom Brady in the first round the year Bernard Pollard smashed Brady's knee like it was hitting on Pollard's wife. Still, the Bills are pretty terrible (even though they somehow managed to hang in there with the Dolphins last week) and I don't think losing a starting running back is as important to the Packers as it is to, I don't know, say MY FANTASY TEAM!
If this game were in Miami, with co-owners J-Lo and Marc Antony in attendance, I'd probably pick my team. However, this is on the road, and while I think the Dolphins will hang in there, I see them losing by 7-10 points. The Dolphins' offense strength is their running game, which happens to be Minny's defensive strength. This just doesn't seem like a good match-up and to top it off, if the Vikes lose, that'll be three in a row going back to the NFC championship game. I can't imagine that happening, even though Brett Favre looked like Brett Michaels against the Saints defense.
FALCONS (-6.5) over Cards
Ah, yet another real-life team that is screwing with my fantasy team. Bennie Wells looked like a great pick in the third round as he was poised to "break out" this year. Mmm Hmm. He's injured, plus they like Hightower catching passes out of the backfield, so now he looks like a massive reach in the third round. Anyway, the Falcons hung in tough with the tough Pitt defense on the road and nearly pulled out a victory. That Cards/Rams game was a pretty convincing argument that the Cards are not good. In fact, it's hard to figure out who the "good team" is going to be from the NFC West. I feel bad for Larry Fitz, and all the people who drafted him too early in their fantasy draft. Derek Anderson can't hit the broadside of Tony Siragusa.
Ravens(-2.5) over BENGALS
I really dislike the Bengals. When are we going to admit that the Carson Palmer ship set sail when he knee was destroyed in their first round playoff lose a couple of years ago? He looked bad against the Pats in week one, and he's supposed to have all these weapons. His stats are actually misleading because he got a bunch of his yards in garbage time, just like Ochocinco. Mr. Chad was pretty good on "The League" season premiere, but no doubt not as good as he thought he was. Taco still rules.
Chiefs (+2) over BROWNS
How about them Chiefs? They looked feisty on Monday Night, and they are starting to have the look of a team that could sneak up and take a weak division with a 9-7 finish. They have weapons and I still think Matt Cassell may be a serviceable NFL QB. With JaAmal Charles running the ball, Cassell will have less pressure on him to make big plays. Their defense looked pretty solid, and their special teams changed the complexion of the Chargers game. I'm probably overreacting to that performance, but I think they're going undefeated this year.
By the way, Cleveland, I'm sorry. I don't know what you did, but the sport's world hates you.
Bears (+7.5) over COWBOYS
The Cowboys are not good. They haven't been in years. Over the past ten years, they are 82-78, yet they are always in the top five teams favored to go to the Super Bowl. They're woefully overrated, and even though Romo puts up big Fantasy numbers (usually) he still seems to have trouble in the big moments. The Cowboys may win this game, but I think it'll be by a field goal, not by a TD plus a field goal. Hence, we go with the Bears here, even though it's very possible Jay Cutler doesn't really know what team he plays for and just throws it to whoever is open, regardless of jersey color.
TITANS (-5) over Steelers
Chris Johnson seemed to justify his spot as number one pick in nearly every fantasy draft by busting a big run and going over a hundred yards easily. What's that? They were playing the Raiders? Hmm...though that gives me pause, it seems that the Vince Young/CJ2K combo is going to be driving defenses crazy for the rest of the year. These teams have a pretty interesting history (remember when the Titans disrespected the Steelers extremely high-class accessory - a dirty yellow towel?), but the Titans seem to have the upperhand right now, unless Jeff Fisher decides that Vince Young should throw the ball 39 times in this game. He won't do that. He's not Andy Reid.
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Bucs
Ugh. The NFC south is almost as disgusting as the NFC west, except they happen to have the super bowl champ. I think the Panthers will control the game with their running game and bubble screens to Steve Smith. At least that's what would happen if Steve Alavi replaced John Fox as coach for the week.
Eagles (-6.5) over LIONS
Good God, as someone who loves dogs, I can't believe I'm saying this, but Michael Vick looked really good against the Packers last week, who happened to be 2009's top defense. The poor, poor Lions were clearly robbed by a shitty, shitty, rule against the Bears, but come on Calvin Johnson! You're a freak of nature! You have the skills to be a hall of fame receiver. I know it sucks being on the Lions, but always remember that you are on the Lions! Don't casually drop the ball on the ground after you catch a touchdown pass. I can't imagine what it's like to root for Detroit. I guess it's like the year the Dolphins went 1-15, but over and over again, like "Groundhog Day."
BRONCOS (-3.5) over Seahawks
Broncos at home are a different beast than on the road. Also, I have the sneaking suspicion that the Seahawks played way over their heads last week and are destined to come back down to earth this week. A very possible scenario involves the 49ers blowing out the Seahawks when they play in San Fran. Man, the NFC WEST!
RAIDERS (-3.5) over Rams
The Raiders looked just as bad as we thought they would, and maybe even worse against the Titans. Still, I can't think of a single reason I would take the Rams on the road. Maybe if the Raiders were giving a touchdown, I'd think about it, but with the line at 3.5, I think the smart play is to go with the Raiders. Is Jason Campbell any good? This year is his last chance to prove that he can be a starting QB in the NFL. After this, he's doomed to back up status for the remainder of his career, and possibly in the afterlife, if they have football in Raider heaven. Did I mention one of my wife's best friends is a Raiderette?
Jaguars (+7) over CHARGERS
I hate Philip Rivers. For a while I thought he was a fiery competitor, but now I just think he's a petulant brat. I think the Jaguars might be a kind of o.k. team, and considering that the Chargers struggle early in the season, I'm taking the points. I don't think the line should be this high.
REDSKINS (+3) over Texans
Classic opportunity for a letdown game following the big win versus the Colts for the Texans. We've yet to seen how they respond to such success, and the Redskins were able to spoil the Cowboys first game. Yes, I said the Cowboys were bad, but the Redskins have all this weird potential and energy swirling around them. McNabb is still a great QB, and I'm still afraid to pick Schaub on the road against a good team (yes, I think the Redskins are pretty good.) And without Foster's 573 rushing yards (there's no way he's doing that again this week), the Texans are going to get into a shoot out with the Skin's and their secondary didn't look particularly good giving up over 400 yards to Peyton last week.
COLTS (-5) over Giants
Really? The Giants are favored by five over the super bowl runner up? The Colts don't do this. Just like the Vikes, it's hard to imagine them losing three games in a row. And while the Giants seems to be a solid team, Eli's three INTs last week do not bode well for the Giants offense. I think big brother beats little brother this week.
Pats (-3) over JETS
Was it ever sweet to see the Jets fail against the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The Jets talk a lot, Rex Ryan talks a lot and eats a lot and cusses a lot, but it remains to be seen if he can coach a lot. If one team talks that much smack, and loses, it just makes them seem all the more pathetic. The Pats never talk. They just play and win. Fuck the Jets.
Saints (-5) over NINERS
I don't have to explain this.
Last week: 9-6-1